Statistical estimates of the likelihood
of earthquake shaking throughout New Zealand

  • W. D. Smith DSIR Seismological Observatory, Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract

The historical record of earthquakes can be used to estimate the probability that any particular locality will be shaken by earthquakes
 in the future. This approach assumes that the past record is representative of what will happen in the future, an assumption which, while not valid for long-term estimates, can be used to estimate return periods of the order of the length of the historical record or less. Intensity is chosen as the parameter which best describes the totality
 of earthquake shaking. Formulae relating intensity to the magnitude of 
the earthquake, its location and that of the observer are developed.
 The complex structure of New Zealand demands three attenuation patterns, each characteristic of a distinct source region. The historical record
 of earthquake occurrence is then examined, models fitted to the statistical population of intensities likely to have been observed at each of a grid of sites throughout the country, and the parameters of these models expressed in terms of the mean return periods for intensities equalling or exceeding MM VI, VII, VIII and IX.

References

Adams, R. D. and Kean, R. J., 1974. "The Dunedin Earthquake, 9 April, 1974. Part 1: Seismological Studies." Bull. N.Z. Nat. Soc Earthq. Eng., Vol. 7, 115-22.

Adams, R. D., Lowry, M. A. and Ware, D. E., 1971. "New Zealand Seismological Report, Inangahua Earthquakes, 1968." Seismological Observatory Bulletin E-147.

Eiby, G. A., 1964. "The Northland Earthquake of 1963 Nov. - Dec. and the Seismicity of Northland." N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys., 7, 745-65.

Eiby, G. A., 1966. "The Modified Mercalli Scale of Earthquake Intensity and its Use in New Zealand." N.Z. J, Geol. Geophys., 9, 122-9.

Milne, W. G. and Davenport, A. G., 1969. "Distribution of Earthquake Risk in Canada." Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 59, 729-54.

Smith, W. D., 1976. "A Computer File of New Zealand Earthquakes." Bull. N.Z. Nat. Soc. Earthq. Eng., Vol. 9, 136-7.

Smith, W. D., in prep. "Studies of Earthquake Risk in New Zealand." N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. (To be submitted.)

Published
1976-12-31
How to Cite
Smith, W. D. (1976). Statistical estimates of the likelihood
of earthquake shaking throughout New Zealand. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 9(4), 213-221. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.9.4.213-221
Section
Articles