The statistical estimation of earthquake risk

  • D. Vere-Jones Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NZ

Abstract

The concept of Earthquake Risk is considered from three points of view: the geophysical
 risk, referring to the probability of occurence of a damaging earthquake in a specified region; the engineering risk, referring to the probability of structural failure; and the insurance risk, referring to the probability of claims being lodged to a specified amount. In each case a general discussion is given of some practical and technical difficulties involved in estimating the risk.

References

Algermissen, S., Steinbrugge, K. et al., (1969). Studies in Seismicity and Earthquake Damage 1969. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Rochville, Maryland. Ambraseys, N. N. (1971). Value of Historical Records of Earthquakes. Nature, 232 (5310) 375-79.

Borges, F. and Castanheta, M. (1971). Structural Safety. Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon.

Dick, I.D. (1965). Extreme value theory and Earthquakes. Proc. Ill World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, New Zealand, 1965.

Eiby, G.A. (1968). An Annotated list of New Zealand Earthquakes 1460 - 1965, N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. II, 630-647.

Gutenberg, B., and Richter, C., (1954). Seismicity of the Earth. Princeton University Press, 1954.

Hawkes, A.G., (1971). Point Spectra of Some Mutually Exciting Point Processes. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B. 33, 438-443.

Kaplan, M. (1971). Actuarial Aspects of Flood and Earthquake Insurance. Proc. Conf. Actuaries in Public Practice, Volume XII.

Vere-Jones, D., Turnovsky, S., and Eiby, G.A. (1964). A Statistical Survey of Earthquakes in the Main Seismic Region of New Zealand I. Timetrends in the Pattern of Recorded Activity. N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 7. 722-44.

Vere-Jones, D. and Davies, R. B. (1966). A Statistical Survey of Earthquakes in the Main Seismic Region of New Zealand II. Time Series Analysis. N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 9. 251-84.

UNESCO, Draft Report of Consultative Meeting of Experts on the Statistical Study of Natural Hazards and their Consequences, Paris, 1972.

Published
1973-09-30
How to Cite
Vere-Jones, D. (1973). The statistical estimation of earthquake risk. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 6(3), 122-127. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.6.3.122-127
Section
Articles