Earth deformation and earthquake prediction

  • G. J. Lensen Geological Survey, Lower Hutt, New Zealand


If ten years ago a scientist had been asked to present a paper on this subject he would have shrugged his shoulders and left this field clear to astrologers and doomsday prophets of weird religious sects.

Now, ten years later such an amount of precursory evidence has accumulated that scientists in California, Russia and Japan are confident that, given the facilities for these studies, it will be possible to forecast major earthquakes, which have their epicentres on land, within the next 10 - 20 years. In fact several successful forecasts have already been made in California.


BENDEFY, L. 1965. Elastic, plastic and permanent deformations of the earth's crust in connection with earthquakes. Proc. 2nd Int. Symp. Recent Crustal Movements : 57 - 67.

BURFORD, R. O. 1965: Strain Analyses across the San Andreas Fault and Coast Ranges of California. Ibid. 85.

HOFMANN, R.B. 1968: Geodimeter Fault Movement Investigations in California. Dept. of Water Resources, State of California. Bull. 116 - 6.

LENSEN, G. J. 1968a: Suggestions for Monitoring Deformation on the Wellington Fault and in the Wellington Region (with discussion on Earthquake Prediction). Report N.Z. Geological Survey 28.

LENSEN, G. J. 1968b: Analysis of Progressive Fault Displacement during Downcutting at the Branch River Terraces, South Island, New Zealand. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 79. 545-56.

MESCHERIKOV, J. A. 1968: Recent Crustal Movements in Seismic Regions: Geodetic and Geomorphic Data. Tectonophysics: 6. 29-39.

MIYABE, N. 1954: Vertical Earth Deformation in Nankai District. The Geographic Survey Inst. 4. 1-14.

YAMAGUTI, S. 1964: Tide Gauge as a Detector of Vertical Movement of the Land. Proc. U. S. -Japan Conf. Earthquake Prediction Problems, Earthquake Research Inst. Univ. Tokyo: 87-9.

How to Cite
Lensen, G. J. (1969). Earth deformation and earthquake prediction. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 2(4), 443-458.