Infrastructure failure propagations and recovery strategies from an Alpine Fault earthquake scenario

Establishing feedback loops between integrated modelling and participatory processes for impact reduction


  • Alistair Davies University of Canterbury, New Zealand
  • Conrad Zorn University of Auckland, NZ
  • Thomas Wilson University of Canterbury, New Zealand
  • Liam Wotherspoon University of Auckland, NZ
  • Sarah Beavan University of Auckland, NZ
  • Tim Davies University of Canterbury, New Zealand
  • Matthew Hughes University of Canterbury, New Zealand



While it is well established that community members should participate in resilience planning, participation with genuine decision-making power remains rare. We detail an end-to-end disaster impact reduction modelling framework for infrastructure networks, embedded within a scenario-based participatory approach. Utilising the AF8+ earthquake scenario, we simulate hazard exposure, asset failure and recovery of interdependent critical infrastructure networks. Quantifying service levels temporally offers insights into possible interdependent network performance and community disconnection from national networks, not apparent when studying each infrastructure in isolation. Sequencing participation enables feedbacks between integrated modelling and participants’ impact assessments. Shared ownership of modelling outputs advances stakeholders’ understanding of resilience measures, allowing real-time implementation, increasing community resilience. Readily understood by central government, this format may increase support and resourcing, if nationally significant. Finally, this method tested integrated modelling and impacts assessments, identifying and enabling improvements for both.


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How to Cite

Davies, A., Zorn, C., Wilson, T., Wotherspoon, L., Beavan, S., Davies, T., & Hughes, M. (2021). Infrastructure failure propagations and recovery strategies from an Alpine Fault earthquake scenario: Establishing feedback loops between integrated modelling and participatory processes for impact reduction. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 54(2), 82–96.