Planning for resilience of water networks under earthquake hazard
A case study for Rotorua District, New Zealand
Water networks are vulnerable to earthquakes and failures of network components can result in a lack of availability of services, sometimes leading to relocation of the community. In New Zealand, there are statutory requirements for the water network providers to address the resilience of infrastructure assets. This is done by identifying and managing risks related to natural hazards and planning for appropriate financial provision to manage those risks. In addition to this, the impact from the Canterbury region earthquakes has accelerated the need for understanding the potential risk to critical infrastructure networks to minimise socio-economic impact. As such, there is a need for developing pragmatic approaches to deliver appropriate hazard and risk information to the stakeholders.
Within the context of improving resilience for water networks, this study presents a transparent and staged approach to risk assessment by adopting three significant steps: (i) to define an earthquake hazard scenario for which the impact needs to be assessed and managed; (ii) to identify vulnerable parts of the network components; and (iii) to estimate likely outage time of services in the areas of interest. The above process is illustrated through a case study with water supply and wastewater networks of Rotorua Lakes Council by estimating ground motion intensities, damage identification and outage modelling affected by number of crews and preferred repair strategies.
This case study sets an example by which other councils and/or water network managers could undertake risk assessment studies underpinned by science models and develop resilience management plans.
Billings I and Charman N (2011). “Christchurch City Council lifelines”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 44(4): 418 424. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.44.4.418-424 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.44.4.418-424
Giovinazzi S, Wilson T, Davis C, Bristow D, Gallagher M, Schofield A, Villemure M, Eidinger J and Tang A (2011). “Lifelines performance and management following the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, New Zealand”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 44(4): 402 417. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.44.4.402-417 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.44.4.402-417
Eidinger J and Tang A (2012). “Christchurch, New Zealand Earthquake Sequence of Mw 7.1 September 04, 2010 Mw 6.3 February 22, 2011 Mw 6.0 June 13, 2011: Lifeline Performance”. Technical Report, Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, Reston, USA.
National Infrastructure Unit. “The Thirty Year New Zealand Infrastructure Plan”. https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/infrastructure-plan/thirty-year-new-zealand-infrastructure-plan-2015 (Accessed 6 April 2021)
Uma SR, Scheele F and Abbott ER (2018). “Implementation of RiskScape for Rotorua Lakes Council Water Supply and Wastewater Networks”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2018/80 for Rotorua Lakes Council, Rotorua, NZ, 89pp.
Grace E (2018). “Wellington Resilience Programme Business Case: Lifelines Outage Modelling”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2017/236 for Greater Wellington Regional Council, Wellington, NZ, 75pp.
Villamor P, Ries W and Najac A (2010). “Rotorua District Council Hazard Studies: Active Fault Hazards”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2010/82 for Rotorua District Council, Rotorua, NZ, 32pp.
GEM (2017). “The OpenQuake-Engine User Manual”. Technical Report 2017-11, GEM Foundation, Pavia, 194pp. https://doi.org/10.13117/GEM.OPENQUAKE.MAN.ENGINE.2.8/01
Stirling MW, McVerry GH, Gerstenberger MC, Litchfield NJ, Van Dissen RJ, Berryman KR, Barnes P, Wallace LM, Villamor P, Langridge RM, Lamarche G, Nodder S, Reyners ME, Bradley B, Rhoades DA, Smith WD, Nicol A, Pettinga J, Clark KJ and Jacobs KM (2012). “National seismic hazard model for New Zealand: 2010 update”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4): 1514-1542. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110170 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110170
Van Houtte C (2017). “Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data”. Bulletin of New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering, 50(1): 21-38. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.50.1.21-38 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.50.1.21-38
Gerstenberger MC, McVerry GH, Rhoades DA and Stirling MW (2014). “Seismic hazard modelling for the recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 17 29. https://doi.org/10.1193/021913EQS037M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/021913EQS037M
Abrahamson N, Silva W and Kamai R (2014). “Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1025-1055. https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS198M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS198M
Boore D, Stewart J, Seyhan E and Atkinson G (2014). “NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1057 1085. https://doi.org/10.1193%2F070113EQS184M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/070113EQS184M
Campbell K and Bozorgnia Y (2014). “NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1087-1115. https://doi.org/10.1193%2F062913EQS175M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/062913EQS175M
Bradley BA (2013). “A New Zealand-specific pseudospectral acceleration ground‐motion prediction equation for active shallow crustal earthquakes based on foreign models”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(3): 1801 1822. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120021
Atkinson GM and Boore DM (2003). “Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93(4): 1703-1729. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020156 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020156
Abrahamson N, Gregor N and Addo K (2016). “BC Hydro ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes”. Earthquake Spectra, 32(1): 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1193%2F051712EQS188MR DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/051712EQS188MR
McVerry GH, Zhao JX, Abrahamson NA and Somerville PG (2006). “New Zealand acceleration response spectrum attenuation relations for crustal and subduction zone earthquakes”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 39(4): 1 5. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.39.1.1-58 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.39.1.1-58
Zhao JX, Zhang J, Asano A, Ohno Y, Oouchi T, Takahashi T, Ogawa H, Irikura K, Thio HK, Somerville PG, Fukushima Y and Fukushima Y (2006). “Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(3): 898-913. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122
Standards New Zealand (2004). “NZS 1170.5: Structural Design Actions – Part 5: Earthquake Actions – New Zealand”. Standards New Zealand, Wellington, 76pp. https://www.standards.govt.nz/sponsored-standards/building-standards/NZS1170-5
Standards New Zealand (2016). “NZS 1170.5: Structural Design Actions – Part 5: Earthquake Actions – New Zealand: Incorporating Amendment No 1”. Standards New Zealand, Wellington, NZ, 88pp.
Dowrick D and Rhoades D (2005). “Revised models for attenuation of modified Mercalli intensity in New Zealand earthquakes”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 38(4): 185 214. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.38.4.185-214 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.38.4.185-214
Massey C, Townsend D, Rathje E, Allstadt KE, Lukovic B, Kaneko Y, Bradley B, Wartman J, Jibson RW, Petley DM, Horspool N, Hamling I, Carey J, Cox S, Davidson J, Dellow S, Godt GW, Holden C, Jones K, Kaiser A, Little M, Lyndsell B, McColl S, Morgenstern R, Rengers F, Rhoades D, Rosser B, Strong D, Singeisen C and Villeneuve M (2018). “Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B): 1630-1648. https://doi.org/doi:10.1785/0120170305
Morgenstern U, Daughney CJ, Leonard G, Donath FM and Reeves R (2015). “Using groundwater age and hydrochemistry to understand the sources of dynamics of nutrient contamination through the catchment in Lake Rotorua, New Zealand”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19: 803-822. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-83-2015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-803-2015
Martin RC (1961). “Stratigraphy and structural outline of the Taupo Volcanic Zone”. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 4(4): 449 478. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1961.10420134 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1961.10420134
Milner DM (2001). “The Structure and Eruptive History of Rotorua Caldera, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand”. PhD Dissertation, Department of Geology, University of Canterbury, NZ, 434pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.26021/9216
Bruce ZR and Bourguignon S (2017). “Determining site period, velocity model and NZS1170.5 site class on a soft pumice soil site using microtremor methods”. New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering Annual Conference, 27-29 April, Wellington, NZ, Paper P2.13.
King AB, Bell R, Heron DW, Matcham I, Schmidt J, Cousins WJ, Reese S, Wilson T, Johnston DM, Henderson R, Smart G, Goff J, Reid S, Turner R, Wright KC and Smith WD (2009). “RiskScape Project: 2004 – 2008”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2009/247 for Foundation for Research, Science and Technology, Wellington, NZ, 162pp.
Dellow GD, Barker PR, Beetham RD and Heron DW (2003). “A deterministic method for assessing the liquefaction susceptibility of the Heretaunga Plains, Hawke's Bay, NZ”. Geotechnics on the Volcanic Edge, March 2003, Tauranga, NZ, p. 111-120.
Semmens S, Perrin N and Barker P (2010). “What lies beneath: geological and geotechnical characterisation of the Wellington central commercial area”. 11th Congress of the International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment, 5-10 September, Auckland, NZ, p. 659-666.
Semmens S, Perrin ND and Dellow GD (2010). “It’s Our Fault – Geological and Geotechnical Characterisation of Wellington City”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2010/176 for Earthquake Commission, Wellington, NZ, 48pp.
Dellow GD, Perrin ND, Ries WF, Auberton F and Kelner M (2015). “Liquefaction in the Wellington Region”. GNS Science Report 2014/16, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, NZ, 71pp.
Cubrinovski M, Robinson K, Taylor M, Hughes M and Orense R (2012). “Lateral spreading and its impacts in urban areas in the 2010-2011 Christchurch earthquakes”. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 55(3): 255-269. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2012.699895 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2012.699895
Jacana Consulting (2016.). “Water Solutions: Three Waters Infrastructure Resilience Review Critical Facility Site Assessments”. Report for Rotorua Lakes Council, Rotorua, NZ.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (2015). Hazus–MH 2.1: Technical Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency (NIBS and FEMA), Washington, USA, 718pp.
Cubrinovski M, Hughes M, Bradley B, McCahon I, McDonald Y, Simpson H, Cameron R, Christison M, Henderson B, Orense R and O’Rourke T (2011). “Liquefaction Impacts on Pipe Networks”. Research Report 2011-04, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, 149pp.
Bellagamba X, Bradley BA, Wotherspoon LM and Lagarva WD (2019). “A decision support algorithm for post-earthquake water services recovery and its application to 22 February 2100 Mw 6.2 Christchurch earthquake”. Earthquake Spectra, 35(3): 1397-1420. https://doi.org/10.1193/052218EQS119M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/052218EQS119M
Cubrinovski M, Hughes M, Bradley BA, Noonan J, Hopkins R, McNeill S and English G (2014). “Performance of Horizontal Infrastructure in Christchurch City through the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence”. University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 139pp. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/9492
Toprak S, Nacaroglu E, Koc A, Van Ballegooy S, Jacka, M, Torvelainen E and O’Rourke T (2017). “Pipeline damage predictions in liquefaction zones using LSN”. 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 8–13 January, Santiago, Chile.
Sherson AK, Nayyerloo M and Horspool NA (2015). “Seismic performance of underground pipes during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence”. Tenth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 6-8 November, Sydney, Australia, Paper no. 202.
Sadashiva, VK, Nayyerloo M and Sherson AK (2019). “Technical Note 06 – Basis for Damage Rate Prediction for Pressure Pipes”. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2017/188 for Opus International Consultants Ltd, 64pp. https://www.waternz.org.nz/Attachment?Action=Download&Attachment_id=4205
Cousins WJ (2013). “Wellington Without Water – Impacts of Large Earthquakes”. GNS Science Report 2012/30, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, NZ, 124pp.
Tabucchi T, Davidson R and Brink S (2010). “Simulation of post-earthquake water supply system restoration”. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 27(4): 263-279. https://doi.org/10.1080/10286600902862615 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10286600902862615
Bellagamba X, Bradley BA, Wotherspoon LM and Hughes MW (2019). “Development and validation of fragility functions for buried pipelines based on Canterbury earthquake sequence data”. Earthquake Spectra, 35(3): 1061-1086. https://doi.org/10.1193/120917EQS253M DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/120917EQS253M
Hunt D and Hutchison G (2014). “Resilience Examples in Reservoirs, Pump Stations and Pipelines – Lessons Learned from the Canterbury Earthquakes”. https://scirtlearninglegacy.org.nz/sites/default/files/qsr-part_337926.pdf (Accessed 30 July 2018)
Ouyang M (2014). “Review on modelling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems”. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 121: 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040
Hasan S and Foliente G (2015). “Modelling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges”. Natural Hazards, 78(3): 2143 2168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1814-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1814-7
Zorn C, Pant R, Thacker S and Shamseldin AY (2020). “Evaluating the magnitude and spatial extent of disruptions across interdependent national infrastructure networks”. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering, 6(2): 020904. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4046327 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4046327
Uma SR, Syed Y, Sapthala K and Prasanna R (2020). “Modelling Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure Network Recovery Using a Decision Support System”. GNS Science Report 2020/18, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, 42pp. https://doi.org/10.21420/Y46F-GJ02
Moratalla, JM and Uma SR (2020). “Modelling Infrastructure Network Outage using Advanced GIS Techniques”. GNS Science Report 2020/24, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, 22pp. https://doi.org/10.21420/RJCS-HW38
Macbeth I, Partington I, Hutchison G and Moore J (2016). A Seismic Shift in Design – Embedding Safety, Resilience and value into post earthquake designs. https://www.waternz.org.nz/Article?Action=View&Article_id=1069 (Accessed 30 July 2018)
Massey C, Townsend D, Rathje E, Allstadt KE, Lukovic B, Kaneko Y, Bradley B, Wartman J, Jibson RW, Petley DM, Horspool N, Hamling I, Carey J, Cox S, Davidson J, Dellow S, Godt GW, Holden C, Jones K, Kaiser A, Little M, Lyndsell B, McColl S, Morgenstern R. Rengers F, Rhoades D, Rosser B, Strong D, Singeisen C and Villeneuve M (2018). “Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B): 1630 1648. https://doi.org/doi:10.1785/0120170305 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170305
Sadashiva VK, Nayyerloo M, Williams J, Heron DW, Uma SR, Horspool NA, Buxton R, Lin S-L, Lukovic B, King AB, Berryman K and Daly M (2020). “Potential benefits of implementing water network resilience projects in Wellington region of New Zealand”. 17WCEE, 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. 13-18 September, Sendai, Japan, Paper No. C002641.