Development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand

First approaches from the methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

  • M.W. Stirling GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
  • C. J. N. Wilson Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Taupo, New Zealand

Abstract

We commence development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand by applying the well- established methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to volcanoes. As part of this work we use seismologically-based methods to develop eruption volume - frequency distributions for the Okataina and Taupo volcanoes of the central Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. Our procedure is to use the geologic and historical record of large eruptions (erupted magma volumes ≥ 0.01 cubic km for Taupo and ≥ 0.5 cubic km for Okataina) to construct eruption volume-frequency distributions for the two volcanoes. The two volcanoes show log-log distributions of decreasing frequency as a function of eruption volume, analogous to the shape of earthquake magnitude-frequency distributions constructed from seismicity catalogues. On the basis of these eruption volume-frequency distributions we estimate the maximum eruption volumes that Taupo and Okataina are capable of producing at probability levels of relevance to engineers and planners. We find that a maximum eruption volume of 0.1 cubic km is expected from Taupo with a 10% probability in 50 years, while Okataina may not produce a large eruption at this probability level. However, at the more conservative 2% probability in 50 years, both volcanoes are expected to produce large eruptions (0.5 cubic km for Okataina and 1 cubic km for Taupo). Our study therefore shows significant differences in eruption probabilities for volcanoes in the same physiographic region, and therefore highlights the importance of establishing unique eruption databases for all volcanoes in a hazard analysis.

References

Bacon, C.R. (1982), "Time-predictable bimodal volcanism in the Coso Range, California", Geology, 10, 65-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1982)10<65:TBVITC>2.0.CO;2

Blong, R.J. (1984), Volcanic Hazards, Academic Press, Sydney.

Connor, C.B., Stamatakos,, J.A., Ferrill, D.A., Hill, B.E., Goodluck, G.I., Conway, F.M., Sagar, B. and Trapp, J. (2000), "Geologic factors controlling patterns of small-volume basaltic volcanism: application to a volcanic hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, Nevada", Journal of Geophysical Research, 105, 417-432. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JB900353

Connor, C.B., Hill, B.E., Winfrey, B., Franklin, N.M., La Femina, P.C. (2001), "Estimation of volcanic hazards from tephra fallout", Natural Hazards Review, 2, 33-42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2001)2:1(33)

Cornell, C.A. (1968), "Engineering seismic risk analysis", Bulletin o f the Seismological Society of America, 58, 1583-1606.

Frankel, A. (1995). "Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States", Seismological Research Letters 66, 8-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.66.4.8

Froggatt, P.L. and Lowe, D.J. (1990), "A review of Late Quaternary silicic and some other tephra formations from New Zealand: Their stratigraphy, nomenclature, volume and age", New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 33, 89-109. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1990.10427576

Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F. (1944) , "Frequency of earthquakes in California", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 34, 185-188.

Houghton, B.F., Wilson, C.J.N., McWilliams, M.O., Lanphere, M.A., Weaver, S.D., Briggs, R.M., Pringle, M.S. (1995). "Chronology and dynamics of a large silicic magmatic system: central Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand", Geology 23, 13-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1995)023<0013:CADOAL>2.3.CO;2

Howorth, R. (1975), "New formations of late Pleistocene tephras from the Okataina volcanic centre, New Zealand", New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 18, 683-712. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1975.10421569

Ho, C.H. (1991), "Time trend analysis of basaltic volcanism for the Yucca Mountain site", Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 46, 61-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(91)90076-C

Iverson. R.M., Schilling, S.P. and Vallance, J.W. (1998). "Objective delineation of lahar-inundation zones", Geological Society of America Bulletin, 110, 972-984. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1998)110<0972:ODOLIH>2.3.CO;2

Jurado-Chichay, Z. and Walker, G.P.L. (2000). "Stratigraphy and dispersal of the Mangaone subgroup pyroclastic deposits, Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand", Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 104, 319-383. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00210-9

Latter, J.H. (1986). "Frequency of eruptions at New Zealand volcanoes", Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 18, 55-110.

Lowe, DJ., Newnham, R.M., Ward, C.M. (1999), "Stratigraphy and chronology of a 15 ka sequence of multi-sourced silicic tephras in a montane peat bog, eastern North Island, New Zealand", New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 42, 565-579. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1999.9514863

Nairn, I.A. (1981), "Some studies of the geology, volcanic history and geothermal resources of the Okataina Volcanic Centre, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand", Ph.D. thesis, Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand.

Nairn, I.A. (1989), Sheet V16AC - Mount Tarawera. Geological Map of New Zealand 1:50,000. Wellington, New Zealand: Department of Scientific and Industrial Research.

Nairn, I.A., Wilson, C.J.N., Wood, C.P., Heron, D.W. & Lyall, J. (1998). "Waikato Region volcanic hazard assessment". Environment Waikato Technical Report 1998/07, 101 pp, Environment Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

Pyle, D.M. (1998). "Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events", Geology 26, 367-370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1998)026<0367:FSARTO>2.3.CO;2

Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J. & Wilson, C.J.N. (2002). "Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: scaling relations and attenuation models for tephra deposits from Taupo volcano", Natural Hazards 26, 147-174 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015608732356

Smith, I.E.M. (editor) (1986). "Late Cenozoic Volcanism in New Zealand", Royal Society of New Zealand Bulletin 23.

Stirling, M.W., Wesnousky, S.G. and Berryman, K.R. (1998). "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of New Zealand", New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41, 355-375. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1998.9514816

Stirling, M.W. McVerry, G.H., Berryman, K.R. (2002). "A new seismic hazard model for New Zealand". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 1878-1903. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010156

Vucetich, C.G. & Howorth, R. (1976). "Late Pleistocene tephrostratigraphy in the Taupo district, New Zealand", New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 19, 51-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1976.10423550

Wadge, G. (1982). "Steady state volcanism: evidence from eruption histories of polygenetic volcanoes", Journal of Geophysical Research, 87, 4035-4049. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB087iB05p04035

Wadge, G., Young, P.A.V. and McKendrick, I.J. (1994). "Mapping lava flow hazards using computer simulation", Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 489-504. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/93JB01561

Wilson, C.J.N. (1993). "Stratigraphy, chronology, styles and dynamics of late Quaternary eruptions from Taupo volcano, New Zealand", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A343, 205-306.

Wilson, C.J.N. (2001). "The 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption, New Zealand: an introduction and overview", Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (in press).

Published
2002-12-31
How to Cite
Stirling, M., & Wilson, C. J. N. (2002). Development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 35(4), 266-277. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.35.4.266-277
Section
Articles