Uncertainties in attenuation relations for New Zealand seismic hazard analysis

  • G. H. McVerry Engineering Seismology Section, DSIR, Wellington

Abstract

Probabilistic techniques for seismic hazard analysis have
come into vogue in New Zealand for both the assessment of major projects and the development and review of seismic design codes. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the modelling
 of the strong-motion attenuation, which is necessarily based largely on overseas data. An excellent agreement is obtained between an average 5% damped response spectrum for New Zealand alluvial sites in the 20 to 59 km distance range and 5.4 to 6.0 magnitude class and that given by a Japanese model. Unfortunately, this corresponds to only about half the amplitude levels of 150 year spectra relevant to code design. The much more rapid decay
of ground shaking with distance in New Zealand has led to a considerable modification based on maximum ground acceleration
data from the Inangahua earthquake of the distance-dependence
of the Japanese response spectra model. Less scatter in New Zealand data has resulted in adopting a lower standard deviation for the attenuation model, which is important in reducing the considerable "probabilistic enhancement" of the hazard estimates. Regional differences in attenuation shown by intensities are difficult to resolve from the strong-motion acceleration data, apart from lower accelerations in Fiordland.

References

Bender, B. (1984). Incorporating Acceleration Variability into Seismic Hazard Analysis. Bull. Seism Soc Am, Vol. 74, pp1451-62.

Bentley, R.J. (1979). Average Estimates of the Attenuation with Distance of 5% Damped Horizontal Acceleration Response Spectra. Proc 2nd South Pacific Regional Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Wellington.

Berrill, J.B. (1984). Seismic Hazard Analysis and Design Loads. Proc. RRU Bridge Design Seminar, Auckland.

Berrill, J.B., Priestley, M.J.N, and Chapman, H.E. (1980) . Design Earthquake Loading and Ductility Demand. Bull. NZNSEE, Vol. 13, pp232-41.

Berrill, J.B., Priestley, M.J.N, and Peek, R. (1981). Further Comments on Seismic Design Loads for Bridges. Bull. NZNSEE, Vol. 14, pp3-11.

Berrill, J.B. (1985). Distribution of Scatter in New Zealand Accelerograph Data. Bull. NZNSEE, Vol. 18, pp151-64.

Cornell, C.A., Banon, H. and Shakal, A.F. (1979). Seismic Motion and Response Prediction Alternatives. Eq. Eng. and Struct. Design, Vol. 7, pp295-315. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.4290070402

Ellingwood, B. et al (1980). Development of a Probability Based Load Criterion for American National Standard A58. Building Code Requirements for Minimum Design Loads in Buildings and Other Structures. NBS Special Publication 577. US Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6028/NBS.SP.577

Gumbel, E.J. (1958). Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press, New York. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7312/gumb92958

Joyner, W.B. and Boore, D.M. (1981). Peak Horizontal Acceleration and Velocity from Strong-Motion Records Including Records from the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, Earthquake. Bull. Seism Soc Am., Vol. 71, pp2011-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr81365

Katayama, T. (1982). An Engineering Prediction Model of Acceleration Response Spectra and its Application to Seismic Hazard Mapping. Eq Eng and Struct Design, Vol 10, pp149-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.4290100111

McGuire, R.K. (1974). Seismic Structural Response Risk Analysis, Incorporating Peak Responses, Regressions on Earthquake Magnitude and Distance. Dept of Civil Eng Research Report R74-51, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Matuschka, T. (1980). Assessment of Seismic Hazards in New Zealand. Report No. 222, Dept of Civil Eng, University of Auckland.

Ministry of Works and Development (1981). Recommendations for the Seismic Design of Petrochemical Plants.

Mohammadioun, B. and Pecker, A. (1984). Low-frequency Transfer of Seismic Energy by Superficial Soil Deposits and Soft Rocks. Eq Eng and Struct Design, Vol. 12, pp537-64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.4290120409

Mohraz, B. (1976). A Study of Earthquake Response Spectra for Different Geological Conditions. Bull Seism Soc Am, Vol. 66, pp915-35.

Mulholland, W.M. (1984). Estimation of Design Earthquake Motions for New Zealand. Research Report 82-9, Dept of Civil Eng, University of Canterbury.

Newmark, N.M. and Hall, W.J. (1969). Seismic Design Criteria for Nuclear Reactor Facilities. Proc. 4th World Conf. Eq Eng, Session B4, pp37-50.

Peek, R. (1980). Estimation of Seismic Risk for New Zealand. A Seismicity Model and Preliminary Design Spectra. Research Report 80-21, Dept of Civil Eng, University of Canterbury.

Peek, R., Berrill, J.B. and Davis, R.O. (1980). A Seismicity Model for New Zealand, Bull NZNSEE, Vol. 13, pp355-64.

Priestley, M.J.N, and Park, R. (1984). Strength and Ductility of Bridge Substructures. Road Research Unit, Bulletin 71, National Roads Board, Wellington.

Skinner, R.I. (1964). Earthquake- Generated Forces and Movements in Tall Buildings. Bulletin 166, New Zealand Department of Scientific and Industrial Research.

Smith, W.D.(1978). Spatial Distribution of Felt Intensities for New Zealand Earthquakes. NZ J Geol and Geophys, Vol. 21, pp293-311. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1978.10424059

Smith, W.D. (1982). Pitfalls in the Estimation of Seismic Hazard. Bull NZNSEE, Vol. 15, pp77-81.

Smith, W.D. and Berryman, K.R. (1983). Revised Estimates of Earthquake Hazard in New Zealand. Bull NZNSEE, Vol. 16, pp259-72.

Smith, W.D. and Berryman, K.R. (1984). Earthquake Hazard in New Zealand: Inferences from Seismology and Geology. Recent Crustal Movements Symposium, Victoria University, Wellington.

Trifunac, M.D. and Anderson, J.G. (1977). Preliminary Empirical Models for Scaling Absolute Acceleration Spectra. Report No. CE77-03, Dept. of Civil Eng, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Published
1986-03-31
How to Cite
McVerry, G. H. (1986). Uncertainties in attenuation relations for New Zealand seismic hazard analysis. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 19(1), 28-39. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.19.1.28-39
Section
Articles