Earthquake forecasting probability charts

Authors

  • D. A. Rhoades DSIR, Wellington, New Zealand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.12.4.324-327

Abstract

Earthquake forecasts can be expressed in a useful form for practical purposes by mapping the probability that specific strengths of shaking will occur within specified timespans. The minimum requirements for a forecasting model to allow this form of presentation are discussed and an illustration based on the precursory swarm hypothesis is given.

References

Rikitake, T., 1975, "Earthquake Precursors". Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 65, 2069-2074.

Smith, W. D., 1976, "Statistical Estimates of the Likelihood of Earthquake Shaking Throughout New Zealand". Bull. N.Z. Nat. Soc. Earthqu. Eng., 9, 213-221.

Evison, F. F., 1977, "The Precursory Earthquake Swarm". Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 15, 19-23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(77)90093-0

Rhoades, D. A. and Evison, F. F., 1979, "Long-Range Earthquake Forecasting Based on a Single Predictor". To be published. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1979.tb02552.x

Smith, W. D., 1978, "Spatial Distribution of Felt Intensities for N.Z. Earthquakes". N.Z. J. G. Geol. Geophys., 21, 293-311. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1978.10424059

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Published

31-12-1979

How to Cite

Rhoades, D. A. (1979). Earthquake forecasting probability charts. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 12(4), 324–327. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.12.4.324-327

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