Earthquake forecasting, public policy and earthquake forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.12.4.328-333Abstract
The geodetic, geophysical and seismological approaches to earthquake forecasting are summarised and illustrated with examples of precursory phenomena, which can be categorised into long term, intermediate term, short term and imminent. The results from at least two, but preferably more, disciplines are needed to reliably identify a precursory phase before a forecast can be made.
The socio-economic impact of earthquake forecasting on business and the community is discussed and it is recommended that for at least the present such forecasts should not be made public. Instead Civil Defence and related exercises should be held in several areas including the "prone" area, in a realistic manner, ensure that manpower is organised, equipment etc. upgraded, and public awareness sharpened in order to reduce the imminent effects on safety both in public and at home.
Once the public has gained confidence, not only in the reliability of such forecasts, but more specifically confidence in the authorities concerned, and once their preparedness has become an accepted fact, only then will a public forecasting have a beneficial effect.
References
Barsukov, O.M., 1972, "Variations of Electric Resistivity of Mountain Rocks Connected with Tectonic Causes". Tectonophysics,14: 273-277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(72)90075-3
Hoffman, R.B., 1968, "Geodimeter Fault Movement Investigations in California". Bull. Dept Water Resources, State of California, No.
Lensen, G.J., 1974, "On the Nature of Vertical Deformation and on the Frequency of Earth Deformation in General". Tectonophysics, 23: 391-406. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(74)90074-2
Mayabe, N., 1954, "Vertical Earth Deformation in Nankai District". The Geographic Survey Inst., 4: 1-4.
Sadovsky, M.A., Nersosov, I.L., Nigmatullaev, S.K., Latynina, L.A., Lukk, A.A., Semenov, A.N., Simbireva, I.G., and Ulomov, V.I., 1972, "The Processes Preceding Strong Earthquakes in Some Regions of Middle Asia". Tectonophysics, 14: 295-307. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(72)90078-9
Semyenov, A.N., 1969, "Variations in the Travel Time of Transverse and Longitudinal Waves Before Violent Earthquakes". Izv. Acad. Sci. U.S.S.R., 4: 245-248.
Whitcomb, J.H., Garmany, J.D., and Anderson, D.L., 1973, "Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities Before the San Fernando Earthquake". Science, 180: 632-635. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.180.4086.632
