The economic issues
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.11.1.8-11Abstract
Expectations are a major factor in economic behaviour. If we expect prices to rise, we buy now rather than later, increasing the demand for goods and ensuring that their prices will indeed increase. If we expect share prices to fall, and act on that premise, share prices will fall. Expectations of an economic recovery will stimulate investment and speed the recovery. They are, to a degree, self-fulfilling.
This has obvious implications for earthquake prediction. If the prediction is believed, it will have economic consequences. In this paper I suggest that the economic consequences of such a prediction may be as important as the impact of the earthquake itself.
References
W. D. Smith, "Statistical Estimates of the Likelihood of Earthquake Shaking Throughout New Zealand", Bulletin of the N.Z. National Society for Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 4, Dec. 1976. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.9.4.213-221
F. F. Evison, "Precursory Seismic Sequences in New Zealand", N.Z. Journal of Geology and Geophysics, Vol. 20, No. 1 (1977); and "Fluctuations of Seismicity before Major Earthquakes", Nature, Vol. 266, No. 5044 (April 1977). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1977.10431595
J. E. Haas and D. S. Mileti, "Consequences of Earthquake Prediction on Other Adjustments to Earthquakes", AAS Symposium on Natural Hazards in Australia, Canberra, May 1976. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.9.4.187-194
