Operational requirements for an earthquake forecasting programme for New Zealand
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.31.3.194-205Abstract
This paper reviews considerations attendant on introducing an operational forecasting scheme in New Zealand. A background section summarizes the current views on the scientific basis of earthquake forecasting and the progress of empirical studies on New Zealand data. Further sections examine the likely form and time-scale of earthquake forecasts, technical resources required for different aspects of developing the forecasts, the need to identify and work with users of forecast information, and the protocols and procedures for issuing regular and ad hoc forecasts. The need for integrating the development of a forecasting programme within a coordinated framework of natural hazard mitigation is emphasized.
References
Ma, Li and Vere-Jones, D. (1997). Application of MS and Lin-Lin algorithms to New Zealand earthquake data. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 40, 77-89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1997.9514742
Robinson, R. (1997). Recent New Zealand seismicity and models of accelerating precursory activity. IGNS Science Report 97/27. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt.
Rupp, S. (1995). Foreshock probabilities in New Zealand. Unpublished BSc Honours project. Victoria University, Wellington.
Harte, D., Li, Dongfeng, Zhuang, J. and Vere-Jones, D. (1998). Forecasting earthquake probabilities: the applicability of catalogue-based precursors to New Zealand data. Institute of Statistics and Operations Research Technical Report No 49. Victoria University of Wellington.
Main, I. (1996). Statistical physics, seismogenesis, and seismic hazard. Rev.Geophys. 34, 433-462. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/96RG02808
Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y. and Mulargia, F. (1997). Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science 275, 1616-1617. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1616
Kagan, Y.Y. (1997). Are earthquakes predictable? Geophys. J. Internal. 131, 505-525
Vere-Jones, D. (1995). Forecasting earthquakes and earthquake risk. J. of Forecasting 11, 503-538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00621-4
Kagan, Y. (1992). Seismicity: the turbulence of solids. Nonlinear Sci. Today 2, 123-134.
Mori, J. and Kanamori H. (1996). Initial ruptures of earthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California sequence. Geophys. Res. Letters 23(18). 2437-2440. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL02491
Abercrombie, R.E. and Mori, J. (1996). Occurrence patterns of foreshocks to large earthquakes in the Western United States. Nature 381, 303-307 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/381303a0
Scholz, C. (1968). The frequency-magnitude relation of micro-fracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. America 58, 379-415.
Otsuka, M. (1972). A chain-reaction type source model as a tool to interpret the magnitude-frequency relation of earthquakes. J. Phys. Earth 20, 35-45 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe1952.20.35
Vere-Jones, D. (1976). A branching model for crack propagation. Pageoph 114, 711-725. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00875663
Vere-Jones, D. (1978). Earthquake prediction - a statistician's view. J. Phys. Earth, 26, 129-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe1952.26.129
Evison, F. (1982). Earthquake forecasting and countermeasures planning. Earthquake Prediction Research, 1, 115-124.
Evison, F.F. and Rhoades, D.A. (1993). The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand: hypothesis tests. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 36, 51-60. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1993.9514553
Evison, F.F. and Rhoades, D.A. (1997). The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand: hypothesis tests II. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 40, 537-547. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1997.9514782
Smith, E. (1981). Foreshocks of shallow New Zealand earthquakes. NZ J. Geol. Geophys. 24, 579-584. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1981.10421533
Savage, M.K. and DePolo, D.M. (1993). Foreshock probabilities in the Western Great-Basin Eastern Sierra Nevada. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. 83(6), 1910-1938.
Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters. Geophys. J. Int. 121(1), 233-254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1995.tb03524.x
Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters. Geophysical Journal International 127(1), 17- 30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1996.tb01531.x
Smith W.D. (1981) The -value as an earthquake precursor. Nature 289. 136-139. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/289136a0
Keilis-Borok, V, Knopoff. L., Kossobokov, V. and Rotvain, I. (1990). Intermediate term prediction in advance of the Loma Prieta earthquake. Geophys. Res. Letters 8, 1461-1464. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/GL017i009p01461
Matthews, M. and Switzer P. (1992). An evaluation of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in California. Technical Report. Department of Mathematics, MIT.
Zheng, X. and Vere-Jones, D. (1991). Applications of stress-release models to historical earthquake data. Tectonophysics 229, 129-146.
Zheng, X. and Vere-Jones, D. (1994). Further applications of the stress-release model to historical earthquakes from North China data. Pageoph 135, 101-121.
Working Group on Californian Earthquake Probabilities. (1988). Probabilities of Large Earthquakes Occurring in California on the San Andreas Fault. US Geological Survey Open File Report, 88-398.
Working Group on Californian Earthquake Probabilities. (1990). Probabilities of Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region. US Geological Survey Open File Circular 1053.
Berryman, K. and Beanland, S. (1991). Variation in fault behaviour in different tectonic provinces of New Zealand. Journal of Structural Geology 13(2), 177-189. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8141(91)90065-Q
Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D. (1991). Seismic gap hypothesis: ten years after. J. Geophys. Res. 96(B13), 21419-21431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB02210
Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson. D.D. (1995). New seismic gap hypothesis: five years after. J. Geophys. Res. 100(B3), 3943-3959. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/94JB03014
Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory quiescence before major earthquakes through a statistical model. J. Geophys. Res. 97(B13), 19845-19871. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/92JB00708
Matsu'ura, R.. Hirata, N. and Urabe. S. (1995). Quasi real-time watch of aftershock activity change of Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake. Prediction of Jan 25: 23h. 16m. M 4. 7 aftershock. Report of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction 54, 600-607 (in Japanese).
Zhuang, J. (1998). Statistical modelling of seismicity patterns before and after the Cape Palliser earthquake. Institute of Statistics and Operations Research Technical Report No 47. Victoria University of Wellington.
Lind, A.T., Sacks, I.S., Johnson, M.J.S.• Hill, D.P. and Bilham. R. (1994). Increased pressure from rising bubbles as a mechanism for remotely triggered seismicity. Nature 371, 408-410. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/371408a0
Sammis, C.G., Sornette, D. and Salem, H. (1996). Complexity and earthquake forecasting. In: Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters. SFI Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, XXV (Eds. J. Rundle, D. Turcotte W. Klein.), 143-156. Addison Wesley.
McNutt, S.R. and Beavan, R. J. (1981). Volcanic earthquake at Pavlof Volcano correlated with the solid earth tide. Nature 294. 615-618. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/294615a0
Walker, D.A. (I995). More evidence indicates link between El Ninos and seismicity. EOS, Trans. AGU 6(4), 33.
Whiteside, L. and Ben-Zion, Y. (1995). Universal trigger pattern in earthquake sequences and the use of triggering for earthquake prediction (Abstract). EOS, Trans. AGU 76(46), 532.
Rikitake. T. (1976). Earthquake prediction. Elsevier. Amsterdam.
Ward, S. (1994). A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in Southern California. Bull. Seismol. Soc. America 84, 1293-1309.
Bakun, W.H., Fischer, F.G., Jensen, E.G. and VanSchaack, J. (1994). Early warning system for aftershocks. Bull. Seismol. Soc. America 84(2), 359-365. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(94)90079-5
Espinoza Aranda, J.M., Jimenez, A., Ibarrola, G., Alcantar, F., Aguilar, A., Inostraza, M. and Maldonado, S. (1995). Mexico City seismic alert system. Seismol. Res. Letters 66(6), 42-53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.66.6.42
Evison, F.F. (1984). Communication of earthquake predictions and warnings. In: Earthquake Prediction: Proc. Int. Simp. on Earthquake Prediction, UNESCO, Paris, Terra Sci. Publ. Co., Tokyo, 937-946.
