Pitfalls in the estimation of seismic hazard
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.15.2.77-81Abstract
Computer catalogues of earthquakes make it rather simple to extract lists of earthquakes that are likely to have affected sites of interest during the historical past, and it is tempting to use such lists for estimation of seismic hazard. What must be borne in mind, however, is that the seismological record is only part of the information required for hazard estimates, that the earthquake catalogue may not be complete and that early epicentres and magnitudes may have large uncertainties. If ground motion is estimated from these approximate epicentres, further uncertainties creep in. Some myths about the concept of return period are exploded, and a bibliography of studies relevant to seismic hazard in New Zealand is presented.
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