Society, prediction and warning
Current assumptions on the implications of earthquake forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.13.4.365-373Abstract
Earthquake prediction and warning is a newly-developing technology, the potential of which may have profound effects on the amelioration and mitigation of one of nature1s most destructive hazard-agents. As yet, this new technology is largely untested in the western world. The politico-socioeconomic consequences of earthquake prediction and warning are uncertain - there have been some who have suggested this new technology may produce more devastation than the earthquake itself. This paper summarises recent social science research on the problems of earthquake prediction technology, the economic, legal and social effects that may accrue as a result of forecasting earthquakes, and draws attention to the difficulties which scientists face at present with regard to the new development.
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