Social and economic consequences of historic caldera unrest at the Taupo volcano, New Zealand and the management of future episodes of unrest
In 1998, changes in a number of indicators (earthquakes and uplift) at two of New Zealand's active volcanic caldera systems (Okataina and Taupo) resulted in increased public, local and central government awareness and some concern about the potential significance of volcanic unrest at a caldera volcano. This paper summarises the episodes of unrest recorded at Taupo caldera since 1895. There have been four significant events (1895, 1922, 1963-64 and 1983) that have included earthquake activity and ground deformation. Caldera unrest is one of the most difficult situations the volcanological and emergency management communities will have to deal with. There is potential for adverse social and economic impacts to escalate unnecessarily, unless the event is managed appropriately. Adverse response to caldera unrest may take the form of the release of inappropriate advice, media speculation, unwarranted emergency declarations and premature cessation of economic activity and community services. A non-volcanic-crisis time provides the best opportunity to develop an understanding of the caldera unrest phenomena, and the best time to establish educational programmes, funding systems for enhanced emergency response and volcano surveillance and to develop co-ordinated contingency plans.
Newhall, C. G., and Dzurisin, D. (1988), "Historical unrest at large calderas of the world". USGS Bulletin 1855, 1108 p.
Simkin, T., and Siebert L. (2000), "Earth's volcanoes and eruptions: an overview". In: H. Siggurdson (Ed.), Encyclopaedia of Volcanoes, Academic Press, New York, 249-261.
Johnston, D.M., Houghton, B.F., Neall, V.E., Ronan, K.R., and Paton, D. (2000), "Impacts of the 1945 and 1995-1996 Ruapehu eruptions, New Zealand: an example of increasing societal vulnerability". Geological Society of America Bulletin, 112: 720-726. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(2000)112<720:IOTARE>2.0.CO;2
Crisp, J. (1984), "Rates of magma emplacement and volcanic output". Journal of Volcanology and Geothennal Research, 20:177-211. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(84)90039-8
Wilson, C.J.N. (1993), "Stratigraphy, chronolgy, styles and dynamics of late Quaternary eruptions from Taupo volcano, New Zealand". Philosophical Transactions of the Geological Society of London A343: 205-306.
Wilson, C.J.N. (2001), "The 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption, New Zealand: an introduction and overview". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 112: 133-174. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(01)00239-6
Wilson, C.J.N., and Walker, G.P.L. (1985), "The Taupo eruption, New Zealand". I. General aspects. Philosophical Transactions of the Geological Society of London A314, 199-228.
Villamar, P., and Berryman, K. (2001), "A late Quaternary extension rate in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, derived from fault slip data". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 44: 243-269. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2001.9514937
Eiby, GA (1968), "An annotated list of New Zealand earthquakes 1460-1965". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 11: 630-647. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1968.10420275
Hill, H. (1911), "Napier to Runanga and the Taupo Plateau". Transactions of the New Zealand Institute 43: 288-296.
Grindley, G.W., and Hull, A.G. (1986), "Historical Taupo earthquakes and deformation". Royal Society of New Zealand Bulletin 24: 174-186.
Lowry, M.A., Ede, S.C., and Harris, J.S. (1989), "Assessment of seismic intensities resulting from the 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake, New Zealand, and implications for modernising the intensity scale". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 21: 145-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1989.10421398
Morgan, P.G. (1923), "Taupo Earthquakes". New Zealand Geological Survey 17th Annual Report p. 10-11.
Dowrick, D.J, and Rhoades, D A (1998), "Magnitudes of New Zealand earthquakes, 1901-1993. Bulletin New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 31(4): 260-280. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.31.4.260-280
Grange, L.I. (1932), "The Taupo earthquakes, 1922. Rents and faults formed during the earthquake of 1922 in the Taupo District". New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology 14: 139-141.
Otway, P.M., Blick, G.H., and Scott., BJ. (2002), "Vertical deformation at Lake Taupo, New Zealand, from lake levelling surveys, 1979-99". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 45: 119-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2002.9514964
Sherburn S. (1992), "Seismicity of the Lake Taupo region, New Zealand, 1985-90". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 35: 331-335. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1992.9514526
Otway, P.M. and Sherburn, S. (1994), "Vertical deformation and shallow seismicity around Lake Taupo, New Zealand, 1985-90". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 37: 195-200. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1994.9514614
Otway P .M. (1986), "Vertical deformation associated with the Taupo earthquake swann, June 1983". Royal Society of New Zealand Bulletin 24: 187-200.
Darby, D.J., and Williams, RO. (1991), "A new geodetic estimate of deformation in the Central Volcanic Region of North Island, New Zealand". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 34: 127-136. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.1991.9514450
Kuester, I., and Forsyth, S. (1985), "Rabaul eruption risk; Population awareness and preparedness survey". Disaster 9(3): 179-182. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1985.tb00935.x
Bernknopf, R.L., Brookshire, D.S., and Thayer, M.A (1990), "Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: an economic evaluation of changes in risk perception". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 18: 35-49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-0696(90)90050-9
Latter, J. H., and Balsillie, F.H. (1985), "Shallow seismicity of the Taupo Volcanic Zone, Mt Egmont area and Auckland Volcanic Zone". New Zealand Volcanological Record No. 13.
Latter, J. (1987), Shallow seismicity o f the Taupo "Volcanic Zone and Mt Taranaki area". New Zealand Volcanological Record No. 15.
Barberi, F., Corrado, G., Innocenti, F., and Luongo, G. (1984), "Phlegraean Fields 1982-1984: brief chronicle of a volcano emergency in a densely populated area". Bulletin Volcanologique 47: 176-185. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01961547
Lowenstein, P.L. (1988). "The Rabaul seismo-deformation crisis of 1983-85: monitoring, emergency planning and interaction with authorities, the media and the public". Proceedings of the Kagoshima International Conference on Volcanoes, Kagoshima, Japan, 580-582.
Bowie, R., and Easton B. (eds.) (1987), Business Opinion in New Zealand: The NZIER Survey, Research Paper 36, NZIER, Wellington.
Blong, R.J. (1984), "Volcanic Hazards: A sourcebook on the effects of eruptions". Academic Press, Australia, 424p.
Mader, G.G., and Blair, M.L. (1987), "Living With a Volcanic Threat: response to volcanic hazards, Long Valley, California. Portola Valley, California: William Sprangle", 105 p.
Cochrane, H (1995), "The economic impact of earthquake disasters", paper presented to Wellington After the Quake conference, EQC, Wellington.
De Bondt, W. and Thaler, R. (1985), "Does the stockmarket overreact?" Journal of Finance 40: 793-805. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
De Bandt, W. and Thaler, R. (1987), "Further evidence on investor overreaction and stockmarket sensitivity". Journal of Finance 42: 557-581. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04569.x
The Economist (1996), "Time to wet investors' appetites", 24 February, p.92.
Hill, D.P., Johnston, M.J.S., Langbein, S.R., McNutt, S.R., Miller, C.D., Mortensen, C.E., Pitt, A.M., and Rojstaczer, S. (1991). "Response plans for volcanic hazards in the Long Valley Caldera and Mono Craters Area, California". USGS Open-File 91-270. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr91270
Finnimore, E.T., Low, B.S., Martin, R.J., Karam, P., Nairn, I.A., and Scott, B.J. (1995), "Contingency planning for and emergency management of the 1994 Rabaul volcanic eruption, Papua New Guinea: results of a fact-finding visit". Ministry of Civil Defence, Wellington, 39 p.
Davies, H. (1995), "The 1994 eruption of Rabaul volcano - A case study in disaster management". University of Papua New Guinea.
Nairn, I.A., and Scott, B J. (1995), "Scientific management of the 1994 Rabaul eruption: lessons for New Zealand". Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences science report 95/26, 46 p.
Paton, D., Johnston, D., Houghton, B., and Smith, L. (1998), "Managing the effects o f a volcanic eruption: Psychological perspectives on integrated emergency management". Journal of the American Society of Professional Emergency Planners 5: 59-69.
Paton, D., Johnston, D., Houghton, Flin, R., Ronan, K., and Scott, B. (1999). "Managing natural hazard consequences: planning for information management and decision making". Journal o f the American Society of Professional Emergency Planners 6: 37-48.
Farrar, C.D., Sorey M.L., Evans, W.C., Howie, J.F., Kerr, B.D., Kennedy, B.M., King, C.-Y., and Southon, J.R. (1995), "Forest-killing diffuse CO2 ermssion at Mammoth Mountain as a sign of magmatic unrest". Nature 376: 675-678. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/376675a0
Dzurisin, D., Christiansen, R.L., and Pierce, K.L. (1995), "Yellowstone: restless volcanic giant". Volcanic Hazards Facts Sheet - USGS Open-File Report 95-59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr9559
Barberi, F., and Carapezza, M.L. (1996), "The problem of volcanic unrest: the Campi Flegrei case history". In: Scarpa, R., Tilling, R.I. (eds.), Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards. Springer-Verlag, p.771-786. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-80087-0_23
McKee, C. 0., Johnson, R.W., Lowenstein, P.L., Riley, S.J., Blong, R.J., de St. Ours, P., and Talai, B. (1985), "Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea: volcanic hazards, surveillance, and eruption contingency planning". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 23: 195-237. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(85)90035-6
Copyright (c) 2002 David Johnston, Brad Scott, Bruce Houghton, Douglas Paton, David Dowrick, Pilar Villamor, John Savage
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.