Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region, New Zealand
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.34.4.318-334Abstract
We present the main results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region recently completed for Environment Canterbury (formerly Canterbury Regional Council). We use the distribution of active faults and the historical record of earthquakes to estimate the levels of earthquake shaking (peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations) that can be expected across the Canterbury region with return periods of 150, 475 and 1000 years. The strongest shaking (e.g. 475 year peak ground accelerations of 0.7g or more) can be expected in the west and north to northwest of the Canterbury region, where the greatest concentrations of known active faults and historical seismicity are located. Site-specific analyses of eight towns and cities selected by Environment Canterbury show that Arthur's Pass and Kaikoura are located within these zones of high hazard. In contrast, the centres studied in the Canterbury Plains (Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Christchurch, Ashburton, Temuka and Timaru) are generally located away from the zones of highest hazard. The study represents the first application of recently-developed methods in probabilistic seismic hazard at a regional scale in New Zealand.
References
Abrahamson, N.A. and Silva, W.J. (1997). "Empirical response spectral relations for shallow crustal earthquakes". Seismological Research letters, 68, 94-127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.94
Aki, K., and Richards, P.G. (1980). "Quantitative Seismology: Theory and Methods". W.H. Freeman, San Francisco, California.
Bender, B. and Perkins, D.M. (1987). "Seisrisk II: A computer program for seismic hazard estimation". U.S. Geological Survery Bulletin 1772.
Berrill, J.B., Davis, R.O., and McCahon, I.F. (1993). "Christchurch seismic hazard pilot study". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 26: 14-27. Berryman, K.R., and Beanland, S. (1988). "The rate of tectonic movement in New Zealand from geological evidence". Transactions of the Institute of Professional Engineers of New Zealand 15: 25-35.
Berryman, K.R., Beanland, S., Cooper, A.F., Cutten, H.N., Norris, R.J., and Wood, P.R. (1992). "The Alpine Fault, New Zealand: Variation in Quaternary structural style and geomorphic expression". Annales Tectonicae Suppliment to Volume 6: 126-163.
Berryman, K.R., Cooper, R.F., Norris, R.J., Sutherland, R., and Villamar, P. (1998). "Paleoseismic investigation of the Alpine Fault at Haast and Okuru". Geological Society of New Zealand and New Zealand Geophysical Society Joint Annual Conference. Programme and Abstracts. Geological Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication 101A: 44.
Boore, D.M., Joyner, W.B., and Furnal, T. (1997). "Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration in western North American earthquakes". Seismological Research Letters 68, 128-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.128
Cornell, C.A. (1968). "Engineering seismic risk analysis". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 58: 1583- 1606.
Cowan, H.A., (1991). "The North Canterbury earthquake of 1 September, 1888". Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 21: 1-12.
Cowan, H.A. (1992). "Structure, seismicity and tectonics of the Porters Pass - Amberley fault zone, north Canterbury, New Zealand". PhD thesis, University of Canterbury, New Zealand.
Cowan, H.A , Nicol, A., and Tonkin, P. (1996). "A comparison of historical and paleoseismicity in a newly formed fault zone and a mature fault, North Canterbury, New Zealand". Journal of Geophysical Research 101: 6021- 6036.
Crouse, C.B. (1991). "Ground-motion attenuation equations for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone". Earthquake Spectra, 7(2): 201-236. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585626
DeMets, C., Gordon, R.G., Argus, D.F., and Stein, S. (1990). "Current plate motions". Geophysical Journal International 101: 425-478.
Dowrick, D.J., Berryman, K.R., McVerry, G.H., and Zhao, J.X. (1998). "Earthquake hazard in Christchurch". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 31: 1- 23.
Elder, D.M., McCahon, I.F., and Yetton, M.D. (1991). "The earthquake hazard in Christchurch: a detailed evaluation". Research Report to the EQC. Soils and Foundations Ltd., Christchurch.
Frankel, A. (1995). "Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States". Seismological Research Letters 66: 8-21.
Grapes, R., Little, T., and Downes, G. (1998). "Rupturing of the Awatere Fault during the 1848 October 16 Marlborough earthquake, New Zealand: historical and present day evidence". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41: 387-399.
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F. (1944). "Frequency of earthquakes in California". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 34: 185-188.
Hanks, T.C. and Kanamori, H. (1979). "A moment magnitude scale". Journal of Geophysical Research, 84: 2348-2350.
Hanson, S.L., Thenhaus, P.C., Chapman-Wilbert, M. and Perkins, D.M. (1992). "Analyst's manual for USGS seismic hazard programs adapted to the Macintosh computer system". U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 92-529.
Idriss I. M. (1991). "Selection of earthquake ground motions at rock sites". Report prepared for the Structures Division, Building and Fire Research Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Davis.
Kawashima, K., Aizawa, K., and Takahashi, K. (1984). "Attenuation of peak ground motion and absolute acceleration response spectra". Proceedings of the 81h World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco 2: 257-264.
Kingsbury, P. A., Pettinga, J. R., and Van Dissen, R. J. (2001). "Earthquake hazard and risk assessment study for the Canterbury region, South Island, New Zealand: Outline of Programme Development". Bulletin of the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering (this volume), Vol. 34, No. 4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.34.4.276-281
McVerry, G.H., Zhao, J.X., Abrahamson, N.A., and Somerville, P.G. (2000). "Crustal and subduction zones attenuation relations for New Zealand earthquakes". Proceedings of the 12th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering 2000. Auckland, New Zealand.
Pettinga, J.R., Chamberlain, C.G., Yetton, M.D., Van Dissen, R.J., and Downes, G. (1998). "Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Study (Stage 1 - Part A); Earthquake Source Identification and Characterisation". Canterbury Regional Council Publication U98/10.
Pettinga, J. R., Yetton, M. D. Van Dissen, R. J. and Downes G. (2001). "Earthquake source identification and characterisation for the Canterbury region, South Island, New Zealand", Bulletin of the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering (this volume), Vol. 34, No.4.
Reasenberg, P. (1985). "Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982". Journal of Geophysical Research 90: 5479-5496.
Sadigh, K., Chang, C.-Y., Egan, J.A., Makidisi, F. and Youngs, R.R. (1997). "Attenuation relationships for shallow crustal earthquakes based on Californian strong motion data", Seismological Research Letters 68(1): 180-189. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.180
Smith, W.D. and Berryman, K.R. (1986). "Earthquake hazard in New Zealand: inferences from seismology and geology". Bulletin o f the Royal Society o f New Zealand 24: 223-243.
Standards New Zealand, (1992). "Code for Practice for General Structural Design and Design Loadings for Buildings. Volume 1: Code of practice". NZS 4203:1992.
Stirling, M.W., Wesnousky, S.G. and Shimazaki, K. (1996). "Fault trace complexity, cumulative slip, and the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution for strike-slip faults: a global survey". Geophysical Journal International 124: 833- 868.
Stirling, M.W., Wesnousky, S.G. and Berryman, K.R. (1998). "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of New Zealand". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41: 355-375.
Stirling, M.W., McVerry, G.H., Berryman, K.R., McGinty, P., Villamor, P., Van Dissen, R.J., Dowrick, D., Cousins J., and Sutherland, R. (2000). "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of New Zealand: New active fault data, seismicity data, attenuation relationships and methods". EQC Research Report.
Stirling, M.W., McVerry, G.H., and Berryman, K.R. "A new seismic hazard model for New Zealand". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (in press).
Sutherland, R., and Norris, R.J. (1995). "Late Quaternary displacement rate, paleoseismicity, and geomorphic evolution of the Alpine Fault: evidence from Hokuri Creek, South Westland, New Zealand". New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 38: 419-430.
Weichert, D.H. (1980). "Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 70: 1337-1346.
Wells, D.L., and K.J. Coppersmith, (1994). "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84: 974-1002.
Wesnousky, S.G. (1986). "Earthquakes, Quaternary faults and seismic hazard in California". Journal of Geophysical Research 91:l2587-12631.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1995). "Seismic hazards in southern California: Probable earthquakes, 1994-2024". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 85: 379-439.
Yetton, M.D., Wells, A., and Traylen, N.J., (1998). "The probability and consequences of the next Alpine Fault earthquake". EQC Research Report 951193.
Yetton, M.D. (2000). "The Probability and Consequence of the next Alpine Fault Earthquake, South Island, New Zealand". Unpublished PhD Thesis, Lodged in the University of Canterbury Library, Christchurch, NZ. 312 pages.
Youngs, R.R., Chiou, S.-J., Silva, W.J., and Humphrey, J.R. (1997). "Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes". Seismological Research Letters, 68(1): 58-73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.58
